Teste de eficiência de mercado na forma fraca: estudo com a commoditie agrícola soja

Abstract

In the contemporarily there are several forms of investments, among those, there are some forms that are some more conservatives, and others that bring some degree of risk to those who decide to invest their money. In view of this, there is a possibility of obtaining good financial gains from the sale of soy commodity. One of the possibilities of obtaining financial gains would be with the strategy of buyandhold, a passive strategy. A different way to obtain financial gains with this commodity would be from the using of technical analysis tools, those tools use historical price series to make possible projections of future prices, and thus, achieve gains superior to the passive strategy. The literature is quite divided when it comes to these issues, some authors support the market efficiency hypothesis, while others defend the technical analysis tools. The present study allowed making comparisons between these two forms of investment, and the results are favorable to the use of technical analysis, as this would give a greater return to those who chose it.