Sistema agrometeorológico de previsão para ferrugem asiática da soja

Abstract

Asian soybean rust is undoubtedly the most severe epidemiology that affects the culture, causing losses in all crops. Given the difficulty of efficient ways of dividing it and also by concerns about the overuse of agrochemicals, there are the agro-meteorological forecasting models of disease. These models are described as a means to explain and analyze the progression of a given disease, whereas meteorological factors, in order to avoid severe cases, thus decreasing the number of agrochemical applications, costs and risks to the environment. In this situation, the aim of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict the occurrence of soybean rust in soybeans, based on meteorological variables and the occurrence of predicting whether or not the disease. The experiment was carried out in a field near the Universidade Federal da Fronteira Sul, campus Cerro Largo. The studied area did not receive any type of fungicide application, and from R1, 10 soybean triphols were collected every 7 days and submitted to analysis of the diagrammatic scale of the observed severity until the total defoliation of the plants. These data served to compose the curve severity of soybean rust in the area, which combined with the extracted data from the meteorological station of the University, they were used to establish the model. The model that best described the progression of the epidemic was linear in the area, being interpretable and consistent with existing literature. The interpretation of the model, the temperature considered as the most important variable.