Efeito do fenômeno enos sobre a produtividade de soja no Brasil

Abstract

Soybean yield in Brazil is directly influenced by the climate. The production of this crop has helped in the positive numbers of various economic indices such as GDP and the trade balance. Therefore, despite technological, scientific and genetic development, climate is still the factor that most influences the productivity of this crop, so knowledge of these factors is indispensable in order to reduce their impacts against forecasts. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the effect of climate change caused by La Niña, El Niño and neutrality phenomena on soybean yield in Brazil, as they directly affect climatic conditions such as rainfall and temperature. For this, we used data from CONAB (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento) historical series and surface temperature variation data from the Equatorial Pacific Ocean obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data source, which distinguishes the phenomena. After obtaining the data, the historical averages were subjected to regression analysis and then the technological tendency of productivity was removed. After that, graphs were elaborated that relate this information. The interference of ENSO phenomena on soybean yield differs in relation to the analysed states, proving the importance of in-depth knowledge of these relationships.