Análise da aplicabilidade da curva de Phillips nas principais regiões metropolitanas brasileiras no período 2003 a 2014

Abstract

The present paper aims to estimate the applicability of the Phillips Curve to the brazilian metropolitan regions of Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Porto Alegre in the 2003-2014 study period. The initial analysis is a literature review seeking to characterize the unemployment and inflation variables as components of the Phillips Curve. The theoretical evolution and variations of the Phillips Curve are also described. A brief background from the economic scenario and macroeconomic policies of the study period is presented. This research qualifies as descriptive, documentary and predominantly quantitative. The data for each metropolitan region was collected on SIDRA-IBGE data-basis, and the variables adopted were unemployment rates, inflation rate, and inflation projections. The data analysis was conducted through regression using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Method for the six regions studied. The results showed that the dynamics of inflation could not be demonstrated by the unemployment variable, which did not present statistical significance in the analyzed period.