Anomalias de temperatura em São Joaquim, na Serra Catarinense, entre os anos de 2008-2022: uma análise comparativa com a normal climatológica (1991-2020)

Abstract

Studies on climate change have been developed worldwide, with the aim of understanding the causes and consequences of this process. The reports prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2022) have been proving, with each publication, that global temperatures have been increasing in recent years, when compared to the period known as pre-industrial. In Brazil, scientific research has also shown an increase in temperatures in different parts of the territory, however, the recent publication by the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET, 2022) is categorical, demonstrating that the last decade was the hottest since the 1960s, with 9 out of 12 years with the highest positive deviations from the mean (2015, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019 and 2021, with deviations between 0.4 and 0.9 ºC). In this context, there is an interest in studying temperature anomalies in relation to the averages presented in São Joaquim, a municipality located in the Serra Catarinense, which has the characteristic of being located in one of the coldest places and where the lowest temperatures in Brazil are commonly recorded. In this sense, this research seeks to carry out a comparative analysis of the average monthly temperatures recorded between 2008 and 2022 and the climatological normal (1991-2020) in the municipality of São Joaquim-SC. For this analysis, data provided by the meteorological database of the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) were used. The results found demonstrate that the year 2019 has the greatest deviation, with 1.2°C, being classified as the hottest in the studied series, followed by the years 2014 and 2017, with 0.9°C, and, subsequently, 2015 (0.8°C) and 2012 (0.7°C). In the monthly course, the concentration of negative temperature anomalies is notable, with the characterization of months below the average, especially until the year 2013. According to the classification used, however, there was no characterization of months with anomalies far below the average (>-3°C). As of 2014, months with positive anomalies began to predominate, with temperatures above average and well above average, with a higher concentration between the months of may and september, with emphasis, mainly, on the month of september, since, from 2014, only in 2016 and 2022 there were no above average temperatures.