Neoplasia maligna de tireoide no Brasil: análise temporal e sociodemográfica segundo as regiões brasileiras de 2014 a 2024

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Thyroid cancer is the endocrine malignancy with the highest incidence rate in Brazil and is more common among women aged 30 to 65 years. OBJECTIVE: To analyze temporal trends in thyroid cancer incidence and mortality rates over an 11-year period and to describe the epidemiological characteristics of cases across Brazil’s five geographic regions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This ecological study used data from DataSUS (2014–2024). Cases of malignant thyroid neoplasms were obtained from the Hospital Information System, totaling 53,632 cases. Mortality data were extracted from the Mortality Information System, comprising 9,358 deaths. Population data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Variables analyzed included sex, age group, region of diagnosis, diagnosis, and detailed diagnosis for incidence analyses, with skin color and educational level additionally evaluated for mortality analyses. Prais–Winsten regression was used to assess temporal trends. RESULTS: A total of 53,632 cases of malignant thyroid neoplasms and 9,358 related deaths were recorded in Brazil during the study period. The national mean incidence rate was 3.84 per 100,000 inhabitants, showing an increasing trend (APC = 53.2%; p = 0.006), observed in all regions. The highest incidence rate was found in the Northeast (4.36/100,000), while the lowest was observed in the South (1.38/100,000). Females presented the highest incidence rates (6.21/100,000), with a peak in the Northeast (7.68/100,000). The most affected age groups were 50–59 years (8.00/100,000) and 60–69 years (8.66/100,000). The mean national mortality rate was 0.435 per 100,000 inhabitants, with a slight increase over time (APC = 2.4%; p < 0.001), being higher among women (0.564/100,000) than men (0.325/100,000). Mortality remained stable in the North and Central-West regions and increased in the remaining regions. Individuals from all skin-color categories showed increased mortality rates. A marked increase in incidence accompanied by stable or declining mortality suggests a potential impact of overdiagnosis. CONCLUSION: Thyroid cancer incidence increased substantially in Brazil, particularly among women and in the Northeast region. Mortality remained stable or declined, suggesting the influence of overdiagnosis and improvements in diagnostic practices..